Hey everyone, today Im posting what I call “4th Down Fallacies” Before I start, what is a fallacy?
A fallacy is basically a flawed way of thinking. Its where logic is faulty. The common errors in logic that people tend to use often get named. Go ahead and google fallacies sometime and see if youve been committing any, or just to check them out, they’re sort of neat…
But of course Im not posting about fallacies in everyday lifes arguments. I’m posting a list of 4th down fallacies that Ive come up with. This isnt a ‘when do I go for it’ thread, this is a ‘better not make these mental mistakes’ thread. Think you’ve committed one of these? Check em out...
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Offensive Bias
This is the most general 4th down fallacy, so we’ll start with this. This is basically the concept that we madden players typically tend to want to decide the game on the offensive side of the ball. We want to be on offence for the last drive, not defence. However offence is just one of the three phases of football (and madden).
We can get ourselves into trouble on 4th down because of this bias. Problems arise in situations where it’s been the defence outplaying your offence. Even though defensively you might be playing better football, this bias makes us far more likely to take an unwarranted risk on 4th down simply to ‘decide the game on offence’ where on the other hand, although you might not like it (yet), the defence would give you the best chance to win the game.
Emotional Attachment
This fallacy is the idea that we get much too emotionally attached to a single offensive possession/drive. Is punting like pulling a tooth for you? It shouldn’t be. The big problem is that most times we start drives with very high expectations. When you decide you’re going to blast down and score a touchdown, and it becomes 4th & 6 at your 45 yard line, what’s the call? If your committing this fallacy you’ve already went for it. If you’re tempted to commit it, you’re punting, but again, it’s pulling teeth.
The big idea here is that punting is fine! There is no possible way you’re going to go look back and say I lost the game because of that punt. The punt actually keeps you in the game! You are putting yourself in position to give yourself a chance to win. Don’t beat yourself, you’re better then that!
“He’s gona go down and score”
This is more common with the lower-end player, but it is still a fallacy. Now here is the problem…
If you are actually warranted to believe this, and your opponent is that good on offence that he is in fact going to blow down the field and score again, and you’ve seen him do it enough times to be pretty sure of this… well sounds like you’ve lost already. Go ahead and go for it, it doesn’t matter.
The real problem is when people say this too early. It can be pretty easy to justify going for a 4th down by saying this to yourself, but you have to give your defence I chance. You simply cannot play the game with that attitude, and you’re almost certain to lose. This fallacy extends past a simple 4th down decision, this is a team wide downfall, and you have to correct it by learning to play the other phases of football.
Unless you realize the problem and take steps to improve, you’ll likely keep playing losing football, and you’ll fool yourself by thinking you lost because your offence couldn’t convert this, and couldn’t do that…
“It’s only 2 yards”
This is perhaps the most deadly and tempting fallacy of them all. The problem is that all kinds of factors play into a 4th down decision (score, game clock, quarter, yard line, what’s working and what’s not, etc…) and we tend to ignore all of this and simply make a decision based on the 4th down’s distance-to-go.
The glass is half-full in these situations, instead of half empty. The fact’s are that yes, it is a very short distance to the first down, and yes it is very likely I’ll pick it up, but the key is to also go down the road of “what if I don’t get it”. That short distance isn’t much to you, but it is massive for your opponent. You must proportion your going-for-it with all the other factors, and weigh the pros and cons.
Anything can happen on just one play. Are you willing to risk the game (potentially, or whatever the risk is) on this one play? Make sure the reward is worth the risk… and make sure you consider that risk… and don’t take it lightly. 4th and inches is still a decision!
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Hope you enjoyed, and my last comment is that these are 100% my opinion that I've gathered throughout the years, and I look forward to hearing feedback. Anyone disagree? Have other fallacies? Agree?
Thanks everyone
Subject: 4th Down Fallacies 
